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Fire AggroTier 2
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Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Baby Gray Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |