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Fire AggroTier 2

at Topspot AMB Store Championship

decks
4 (40.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5 1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.9% avg ELO -9.3 per match
expected value
43.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1362 · median 1401 · range 1150–1495 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1031 Q1 1157 Q3 1376 1638
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Astra Cleric 20.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.3% -4.5
Fire Wind Vanitas 10.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.2% -8.4
Slimes 10.0% 0
Water Allies 10.0% 0
Wind Razorgale 10.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.5
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 2 0
Captivating Cutthroat +1.00 2 0 0
Focused Flames +1.00 2 0 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary +1.00 2 0 0
Backup Charger -1.00 0 2 0
Temper in Flames +1.00 2 0 0
Fiery Swing +1.00 2 0 0
Reduce to Ash -0.50 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble +0.50 1 0 1
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +0.50 1 0 1
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.50 1 0 1
Planted Explosive +0.50 1 0 1
Heated Vengeance +0.50 1 0 1
Flamewing Fowl -0.50 0 1 0
Forest Cake -0.50 0 1 0
Varuckan Soulknife +0.50 1 0 1
Woodland Squirrels +0.50 1 0 1
Mercenary's Blade +0.50 1 0 1
Beastbond Boots -0.50 0 1 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper -0.50 0 1 0
Blazing Bowman +0.50 1 0 1
Scavenging Raccoon -0.50 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.50 1 0 1
Baby Red Slime -0.50 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil -0.50 0 1 0
Blazing Throw +0.50 1 0 1
Slime Eruption -0.50 0 1 0
Immolation Trap -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate +0.50 1 0 1
Baby Gray Slime -0.50 0 1 0
Fanatical Devotee -0.50 0 1 0
Rending Flames +0.50 1 0 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.50 1 0 1
Poisoned Dagger +0.50 1 0 1
Zander, Prepared Scout +0.50 1 0 1
Silvie, Wilds Whisperer -0.50 0 1 0
Sable Remnant -0.50 0 1 0
Surging Bolt -0.50 0 1 0
Orb of Choking Fumes -0.50 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -0.50 0 1 0
Blinding Orb -0.50 0 1 0
Corhazi Courier -0.50 0 1 0
Vicious Slice -0.50 0 1 0
Mark the Target +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14862/archetypes/Fire Aggro